Sunshine with a chance of...
I may be bullish for Alberta, but not everything is sunshine and roses
I’m a big believer in the Alberta real estate market.
As data keep pouring in, I am excited about the future years as my investor partners and I continue to build our portfolios with anticipation of continued market growth, both in rent and real estate prices.
What’s even more encouraging, is the real time, boots-on-the-ground information I’m receiving.
As someone who has a portfolio across multiple cities in Alberta, I get real life data such as rent, vacancy, number of applicants, time to fill a unit, etc.
I see it first hand on how the market is moving.
Rent is UP, vacancy is DOWN, number of applicants are UP, time to fill a unit is DOWN.
There’s even a waitlist on one of our multifamily properties of people wanting to rent.
That is the ideal market condition for rental properties.
In addition to having access to information from my own portfolio, I also have the advantage of getting boots-on-the-ground stories from my team of Property Managers, Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, Real Estate Lawyers, Bankers, etc.
The stories they shared are nothing but incredible.
We are living through a historic time in the Alberta real estate market.
No doubt about it.
If any readers are interested, I may choose to share some of the stories they mentioned to me in future issues.
Now, I wouldn’t be doing my job as a managing partner if I don’t keep an eye on the horizon.
Just because everything is sunshine and roses right now, it doesn’t mean it will continue.
Interestingly, the reason why I believe the next few years we’ll see a historic boom of a life time in Alberta, is precisely this human psychological fallacy or blindspot.
Most people fall into something called Recency Bias.
The recent boom in the Alberta market will attract more and more people into the market, thinking it will keep going UP.
While I don’t see any major warning signs out there… yet, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I keep my head buried in the sand and telling everyone: ALL CLEAR!
It’s exactly this type of behaviour that gets people in trouble.
A poll commissioned by CBC News is one of the things that I look out for on my radar.
In a recent poll commissioned by CBC News, 54 per cent of Albertans said it's been difficult to meet their monthly household expenses — marking the first time that a majority of people have felt that way over six years of similar polling.
"What really struck me about this poll were the economic numbers," she said.
"[…] This is not a flash in the pan. There has been a shift — an important shift — in the way people are feeling about the economy."
To be clear, this is not a cause of concern by any stretch of the imagination.
In most parts of the country, more and more people, especially the young and lower middle class have been struggling to keep up with the inflation.
However, what caught my attention, is the big shift in sentiment.
Whenever there’s a change in direction of where the wind is blowing, I pay attention.
Wanted to share this with you, because I know, if our role were to be reversed, this is the type of information I would want as a reader - to be educated and informed.
As I look at the Alberta real estate market forecast, I see sunshine ahead.
That being said, clouds may be slowly covering the furthest part of the horizon.
It may be nothing, since it’s so far away.
The wind may blow over.
Or, it may turn into, something.
Only time will tell.
What do you think of the poll by CBC News? Reply to this email and let us know what you think.
Looks like there are some stock investors reading last week’s newsletter Volatile Time and interested in The Economy As I See It Webinar:
I would. I trade stocks/options as well! - Reader Shelly B. M.
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Yen carry trade unwinding. Crazy to think a move to .25% interest rates could have such ramifications around the world!
I agree that the markets moves suggest more volatility ahead after a long period of low volatility. - Reader Nathan K.
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Yes. I believe Warren Buffet dropped his Iphone which broke and dumped a whole bunch of Apple stock in frustration
Stock market is bouncing around right now. - Reader Dennis T.
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Count me as a yes vote if you’re planning to host another webinar. - Reader Steve C.
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When I saw the stock market drop and it became such a huge announcements on the news the first thing I thought of was “there’s the media” And there was no emotion on my part! It’s great when you can take all of that aside ! I got excited because it was a new stage of learning for me that I was expecting this to happen at some point . Thanks, Eric always enjoy learning from you :) - Reader Tammy C.
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I would be interested in your "Economy As I See It Webinar". - Reader Lori K.
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Eric’s Reply: Stay tuned on the Economy As I See It Webinar. I’ll get working on collecting some new data to feature.
More fireworks will be happening in the stock market soon. Get ready for a wild ride.
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Eric Chang
Victoria, BC
August 13, 2024
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